The hottest machinery industry is looking forward

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Machinery industry: expect recovery opportunities, opportunities and risks coexist

in the past five years, the growth rate of the machinery industry has been maintained at more than 30%. Even in 2008, facing the impact of domestic and foreign economic contraction, rising steel costs and other negative factors, the growth rate of the machinery industry in the first three quarters still reached 27.8%, and exports increased by 31.91% year-on-year

among them, sub industries such as construction machinery, heavy mining, shipbuilding, electrical and electrical appliances, petrochemical equipment, etc. are still the highlights

according to the macro analysts of CITIC Securities, the growth rate of China's GDP and fixed asset investment in 2009 was significantly lower than that in 2008. Considering the industrial technological progress, policy support, cost-effective advantages and other factors, the acceleration of import substitution can partially make up for the slowdown in domestic demand, and the domestic demand of the machinery industry will fall slightly

although the export of machinery and equipment in 2009 faced the adverse factors of external demand slowdown caused by the global economic slowdown, considering the competitiveness of China's machinery products, the improvement of sales network and the national policy support for the export of machinery products, it is expected that the export growth rate of the industry in 2009 will be between 20% and 25%

considering the domestic demand and export situation, the growth rate of the machinery industry is expected to be about 20% in 2009. The industry will have both opportunities and risks in 2009

in terms of specific sub industries, the construction machinery industry is expected to usher in a new dawn after the rapid decline in the innovation and practice of pipeline insulation technology led by the first straight line. With the implementation of a series of economic stimulus policies and infrastructure construction projects, the fourth quarter of 2008 may become a boom trough for the construction machinery industry. In 2009, the industry may show a trend of "low before high", with an annual growth rate of about 15%

although the global shipbuilding market faced the pressure of falling ship prices and reduced orders in 2009, the global competitiveness of China's shipbuilding industry has been steadily improved. With the realization of high priced ships and the improvement of shipbuilding efficiency, the benefits of the domestic shipbuilding industry will still reach a new high

at the same time, the early negative factors affecting the shipbuilding industry are gradually being eliminated. Since August, 2008, wipe the surface without painting and clean it with cotton yarn dipped in a little engine oil for another time. The rapid decline of ship board price will help alleviate the huge pressure of rising costs of ship enterprises in the early stage; Since July 2008, the trend of RMB appreciation has slowed down significantly, and the production of low iron and aluminum not only puts forward higher and stricter requirements for various raw materials, but also the possibility of RMB depreciation in 2009 is increasing. The reduction of RMB exchange rate risk will help China's shipbuilding industry expand exports and ensure earnings

considering that the government will increase the investment in railway and urban rail transit in the next few years, the corresponding procurement of railway vehicles and urban rail transit vehicles will also increase significantly, and the rail transit manufacturing industry will usher in huge development opportunities. It is estimated that the average annual growth rate of rail transit manufacturing income in the next five years can reach 30%

in terms of the machine tool industry, considering the downstream demand and policy support of the industry, CNC machine tools are the future development direction. The income growth rate of the machine tool industry is about 18%, and the growth rate of CNC machine tools is about 25%

to sum up, the recovery of the machinery industry in 2009 is worth looking forward to. Considering that the current valuation level of the industry has been at the bottom of history, the investment evaluation of the machinery industry as "stronger than the market" is maintained. In the context of the declining growth rate of industry demand in 2009, it is suggested to focus on the following four categories of Companies: companies that directly benefit from government investment, involving sub industries such as railway equipment and construction machinery; Companies with strong independent innovation ability; Companies with order guarantee and strong certainty of performance growth; A company with stable operation and financial safety

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