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At the beginning of the 2019 new year, Spitzer and SMIC set up a subsidiary to release AI dedicated chips. Looking back on the past year, the development of Nb IOT can be described as twists and turns. The technical requirements for micro power short-range radio transmitting equipment (Draft for comments) issued by the radio administration of the Ministry of industry and information technology at the beginning of the year has a huge impact on the whole low-power wide area, and also laid the foundation for NB IOT to become the dominant technology in the market. But even with policy support and strong support from operators, the response of Nb IOT in the market is still flat. Therefore, there are different voices in the industry. One faction believes that Nb IOT is not worth promoting and lists various disadvantages, while the other faction says that the difficulties in promotion are caused by various objective reasons, and it is still very optimistic about the future prospects of Nb IOT

in this regard, the editor first expressed his views and was cautiously optimistic about the performance of Nb IOT in 2019. Next, let's talk about the reasons for this view

in fact, Nb IOT is an lpwan mainly promoted by the three major operators in China and equipment suppliers dominated by Huawei. Its biggest advantages are low power consumption, wide coverage and compatibility with existing network infrastructure. If you are serious, there are Lora, Bluetooth, ZigBee, zigwave and other wireless network communication protocols with similar functions, but why do operators choose NB IOT alone

the reason is very simple. N concentrate policy resources to accelerate the realization of engineering and industrialization. B-iot is mainly built by operators. If you want to use it, you must use the operator's network, which means that operators can charge through NB IOT. However, Lora focuses on sub-1g frequency bands, which are usually unauthorized and are used in special fields in some countries. Therefore, it may face legal and safety problems. This is why the country issued the technical requirements for micro power short-range radio transmission equipment (Exposure Draft)

nb IOT's main competitors in the market have been limited. Although many enterprises have written to the non regulatory bureau of the Ministry of industry and information technology to request the revision of the "opinion draft", at least in the near future, Nb IOT has no competitors in the market. In addition, operators have held large-scale activities in recent times. The bidding plan of Mobile's 5million NB IOT modules has also attracted the participation of most enterprises in the industry. The price of Nb IOT modules has officially fallen below 20 yuan since January 1 this year, which is close to GPRS modules

the decline in module prices, coupled with the vigorous promotion of operators, the state has vigorously promoted the policy of raising speed and reducing fees, and accelerated the construction of IOT. It is reasonable that such effective measures will accelerate the rapid layout of Nb IOT. However, the market gave a cold feedback. Huawei had expected the total number of Nb IOT connections to reach 50million in 2018, but at present, 30million is very reluctantly

in addition to the price factor, the limitation of application scenarios is also a major constraint. The five million level application scenarios with the most NB IOT applications: water, gas, battery cars, smoke sensors, and. In addition to home appliances, the other four are promoted by the government, so it is difficult for enterprises to copy their scale. As for other applications such as agriculture, machine monitoring, hydrological monitoring, etc., they are too scattered to form an effective scale

in addition, in products equipped with Nb IOT modules, in addition to increasing the cost of this item, it is also necessary to consider the cost of GNSS modules and replacement. In terms of parking applications, within five years, Nb IOT needs to replace about 10 more than Lora. When these costs are added up, the cost advantage of Nb IOT is no longer obvious

at the same time, China Mobile took the lead in reducing the price of Nb IOT module to 19.5 yuan with its self-developed module brand, onemo. Although this removed the obstacles to the popularity of Nb IOT and made the price of Nb IOT module consistent with that of 2G module, it also made the manufacturer have no profit at all. At present, the confidence to support manufacturers' more shipments lies in the expectation of Nb IOT application prospects in the future, which is equivalent to enterprises drawing a "pie" for themselves. And if you want to really eat the "big cake" in the future, you need to live now before you think about it

some people may ask why the editor still holds a cautious and optimistic attitude because NB IOT has shortcomings and shortcomings so far? Compared with other lpwan technologies, Nb IOT is born with a golden spoon. Whether it is to vigorously promote the construction of base stations in terms of policies, or the full support of operators and relevant manufacturers, Nb IOT at least has no obstacles in market promotion

"draft for comments" is undoubtedly a big killer, which has attracted the attention of many manufacturers in the industry at least since its release. For this reason, many manufacturers have petitioned to amend these drafts, and this resolution has been issued many times last year to solicit opinions. The last solicitation ended on December 27, 2018. So far, the non regulatory bureau of the Ministry of industry and information technology has not given the latest reply. However, according to the latest "exposure draft", if it is faithfully promoted, it is obviously a devastating blow to Lora

similarly, some insiders believe that the performance of Nb IOT is almost the same as that of 2G module in terms of function. 2G can even achieve the sleep mechanism (PSM mode) of Nb IOT through normal machine and other operations, regardless of whether this situation is established or not. Just to state one fact, 2G recession has become a globally recognized trend. Indeed, on one side, Nb IOT and 2G may not differ much in function. Even 2G can make the power consumption close to the effect of Nb IOT through some operations, but on the whole, a little gap in power consumption will be infinitely amplified, and the function can only be simulated after all, and cannot be completely replaced

in terms of application scenarios, although four of the current five million applications of Nb IOT are dominated by the government, the home appliance market is still promising. At present, the smart home scenario mainly implemented by Huawei is exactly the same. According to relevant statistics, the global smart home market is expected to reach US $130billion in 2020, and the Chinese market may not be able to achieve a good evaluation in LCA, which is about US $22billion. At the same time, the number of smart homes in China will reach 50million

obviously, each smart home will not use only one smart device, so its application scenarios are very wide. This also means that even from the perspective of the application scenario of smart home, it is enough to accommodate the whole NB IOT. At the same time, in the aspect of industrial IOT, equipment monitoring, predictive maintenance, environmental monitoring, monitoring and so on need to be applied to NB IOT. While many enterprises are carrying out public utilities based on Nb IOT applications (such as smart gas, underground pipes, etc.), they find that there are still dead corners and weak coverage areas in the network coverage, which makes the data transmission speed, reliability and model analysis accuracy difficult to meet expectations, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the promotion of the project. But on the contrary, these demands have also become the growth market of Nb IOT

as for the lower price, the bidding of Nb IOT module is considered as a platform for manufacturers to disclose the price, which is unlikely to be carried out by operators in full accordance with the bidding quantity. For manufacturers, there is room for negotiation of rotatable knurled nuts, and the price can be determined step by step according to the purchase quantity, so as to ensure the profit margin of manufacturers

in addition, 5g network will basically start commercial trial in 2019, and this technology will bring more changes to NB IOT. At the same time, Nb IOT, lte-m and EMTC have been included because if there is a gap in the screw rod, the experimental data made in the future will be included in 5g, and 3GPP has completed the 5g core's support for wireless access of these technologies, so that operators can smoothly upgrade to 5gnr while retaining the deployment of these technologies. This indicates that Nb IOT can also play a good role in 5g, and is expected to become a new IOT standard with lower power consumption

more application scenarios, wider application foundation, strong promotion of policies and operators, and new changes brought by 5g technology will become the key to the promotion of Nb IOT technology. Of course, the popularity of Nb IOT is still inseparable from the speed of the development of IOT, but the demand for building, water meters, security monitoring and other scene links is real, and the cooperation of all parties is needed to make these scenes adopt NB IOT technology. It is man-made, and the demand will not change, but when it is met

: Liu Tingting